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Wednesday, January 29, 2020

-=Tesla (TSLA) reported earnings on Wed 29 Jan 20 (a/h)

Tesla beats by $1.53, beats on revs; guides FY20 deliveries above consensus

  • Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $2.14 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $1.53 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.61; revenues rose 2.2% year/year to $7.38 bln vs the $7.05 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. GAAP gross profit of $4.1B remained essentially flat in 2019 compared to 2018.
  • Volume growth and successful cost reduction efforts were offset by normalization of ASP, mix shift towards Model 3 and a higher lease mix. Sequentially, GAAP gross margin remained relatively flat in Q4 at 18.8% vs. 18.6% consensus, while we ramped Model 3 production at Gigafactory Shanghai.
  • Auto gross margin -30 bps QoQ to 22.5%.
  • For full year 2020, vehicle deliveries should comfortably exceed 500,000 units vs. ests near 475K. Due to ramp of Model 3 in Shanghai and Model Y in Fremont, production will likely outpace deliveries this year. Both solar and storage deployments should grow at least 50% in 2020.
  • Reiterates positive GAAP net income and FCF with temporary exceptions due to the lunch of new products
  • Production ramp of Model Y in Fremont has begun, ahead of schedule.
  • Model 3 production in Shanghai is continuing to ramp while Model Y production in Shanghai will begin in 2021. We are planning to produce limited volumes of Tesla Semi this year.
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